Posted by Dan Ewert : 9/17/2002 01:19:00 AM (Archive Link)
I must say that I’m very interested in how the whole Iraq situation is shaping up. I couldn’t have been more pleased with Bush’s speech to the UN last week. It really was a master stroke of politics. By putting forth the argument that Iraq had flaunted UN resolutions instead of just annoying America and by asking for UN multilateral action, Bush directly challenged the authority and the effectiveness of the UN. This left the organization with one of two choices.

The first choice is to do nothing. This certainly would have been the preferred option among most delegates as they generally don’t want to invade Iraq. They’ve all been content to stand on the sidelines decrying America’s unilateral stance and demanding UN legitimacy… never thinking the U.S. would actually ask for it. They thought that no matter how Bush would state the invasion case, they could still pooh-pooh the idea and thereby make the U.S. look all the worse for invading Iraq despite UN opposition. Since Bush did ask, however, and because of how he stated the case, this left the UN in an uncomfortable position as it put the ball squarely in their court. While they were standing on the sidelines, Bush effectively tossed the ball to them and they surely weren’t expecting it and nor were they prepared for it. Now, if they do nothing, it will definitively expose the UN as the weak willed, irrelevant debating club into which it’s been developing. No action on Iraq, where the evidence is obvious, would cause future villains to merely yawn at UN resolutions. In my opinion, there are few things politicians hate more than appearing irrelevant. Like any good legislative, political body, the UN was forced to uphold its legitimacy and relevance. This left them with option two, which is to support action against Iraq… or at least to start talking tough. All of a sudden, countries started warning Hussein to allow in weapons inspectors. They all knew what Bush was saying… put up or shut up. I love Bush for that UN speech because he deftly laid out the rules for how the world will play this particular brinksmanship game instead of allowing the world to do it for him.

Now, if you’ve read the news, Hussein has said that he’ll allow weapons inspectors into the country and give them unfettered access. This is, of course, a delaying tactic. Iraq had the upper diplomatic hand until last Thursday when Bush trumped him. Saddam started seeing world opinion turn against him and he saw the writing on the wall… allow inspectors or the UN (led by the U.S.) would force him to do so. And this time, Saddam wouldn’t stick around for the ending. So yes, now he’s stalling for time until he can figure out what his next move is. Happily, the Bush administration isn’t falling for the ruse and is continuing to put immense pressure on Iraq and is still pressing for a very strict new resolution from the UN Security Council. As I said, Bush has laid out the rules and is forcing Iraq and the UN to play by them. He won’t allow the U.S. to be fooled by old Iraqi tricks.